San Diego's economic health appears pretty sound at the moment. Unemployment is down. Biotech is up. Even if the Chargers leave, it will not be a disaster to us economically, experts say. We won't be buying as much Tums — 'cause we'll be spared the usual late-game collapses — but that's about it.
However, a market crash is a whole different story when it comes to impacting our economic well-being. That's the most potent risk to our GDP, according to an assessment by the well-known insurer, Lloyd's of London.
It recently released its first-ever Lloyd's City Risk Index, which ranks the biggest risks to 301 of the world's largest cities between now and 2025. In all, Lloyds came up with18 manmade and natural disasters that could befall cities and which ones are the biggest risks to each city.
A market crash could cost us dearly — as much as $4.19 billion of our annual GDP of $180 billion. Taken together, the18 risks could cost us $15.67 billion. That puts San Diego is 11th in the nation in Lloyd's GDP@Risk ranking. We're 78th globally.
Behind a market collapse, the next biggest risk is an oil price shock, followed by a cyber attack. Then comes an earthquake.
Yes, the drought has been in the news a lot, but that finished sixth on the list, impacting our GDP by $0.85 billion. Even a human pandemic has more potential to hurt us, at $1.4 billion.
Don't worry about freezing, volcanos or a nuclear accident. They all have zero risk to us. Terrorism is a minor risk, at $0.01billion.
The list could help cities prepare to mitigate the impact of these disasters, Lloyds says on its website. It's based on research done by the Cambridge Center for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.
Nationally, New York faces the greatest impact, at $90.36 billion total for all risks. That city's highest risk, like San Diego, is a market crash, at $25 billion in GDP.
Los Angeles was a close second, at a $90.32 billion GDP loss for the complete set of risks. The most terrifying risk for L.A. is a plastic surgery pandemic. No, we joke. It's a market crash, too.
However, earthquake followed at second.